POWERSPREAD

A tight Super WC Weekend. A bland DIV Weekend. A crazy CH Weekend. So what do we have for SB 57? Early Big Leads? Late Comebacks? Close all the way or just an absolute blowout?

I think we could literally see anything in this game – from boring to exciting to the sublime!

As I have said repeatedly since the Playoffs began – the Eagles are the best team in the NFL this year. They’ve had the best year, some of the best Starting Talent and Depth, solid Execution and a great PS Scheme on O + Surprise Attack Scheme on D.

More importantly, HC Sirianni has built a great Culture of Brotherhood and Aggressive Variety!

The thing is – they are now up against a Team and Coaching Staff that has been there, done that. Who also has great Talent, Execution, Schemes and Culture and has been doing it longer.

The strongest Team of 2022 vs the more experienced SB Team of the Decade — something’s got to give!

Talent

I go into this a little more in my Podcast, but let’s do a quick hit on these two very talented Teams.

Eagles

I think at this point I give the edge to the Eagles – not by a lot – but based on the progression of the year and where they are at right now.

#1 – The Trenches – best OLine in Football and now enormous LT Mailata is playing his best football! He is an Aussie Rules Football guy that came late to American Football. The DLine has plenty of Edge Speed + a 3 Platoon System of DTs!

#2 – The Skill Players — DBs, QB/WRs, RBs and TE are all excellent. The LBs are solid, but are better at pass than run. If Eagles go light at DT, they can be run on!

#3 – Special Teams K/P very good. Coverage teams can be great and also give up some plays or make a lot of Penalties. Watch out for talented DBs 28Jobe and 27McPhearson as they are talented, but were out of control vs Niners!

Chiefs

Youth Infusion + Prime Talent.

These Rookies at DB, DE, WR and RB are coming on strong, but still make some mistakes. More importantly they bring a great Energy that has reenergized this 2022 Chiefs Team!

The Chiefs Defense have a great DT in Jones and other active DLineman Clark, Danna & Dunlap. Their Safeties and LBs are strong and entering their Prime.

On Offense what more needs to be said. The OLine is more Power Oriented than in the past and can do some damage in the run game vs Eagles. Top RB Helaire is back for this game as a compliment to McKinnon and Pacheco. Shuster & MVS could finally make a great pair if healthy.

Their VETERAN TE KELCE is now their true leader with MVP QB MAHOMES. These two could play the Buddy Ball all game long to give them an advantage over the Eagles. Just as Stafford and Kupp played Buddy Ball last year to beat Cincy!

Coaching – Scheme

Again, a veteran staff that helped evolve the NFL game over the last decade versus a young staff that is leading the way to the future.

Chiefs

Andy Reid truly cemented the use of Power Spread concepts in the NFL with his Pro PS Offense. It is now what I call a Full Pro PS and at times can be awesome as well as over complicated. At times vs the Bengals it was an absolute CLINIC to watch!

His DC Steve Spagnuolo is an old school coach with a new school mentality he learned from the great Jim Johnson of who else – the Eagles under Andy Reid in the 00s! He mixes Pressure & Coverage with the best of them. (See here)

SpTeams coach Dave Toub is a widely respected old school coach who also serves as an Asst HC to Reid. There have been some struggles this year – the injury to K Bukter and all the Rookies in Coverage, but he’s still running one of the best SpTeams around!

Culture – Andy Reid has been there, done that! As good as his Schemes are, his Culture may be better. The Chiefs looked fierce last game as underdogs – can they play that card again?

Eagles

Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen have WC (Gillman/Coryell) and WCO (Walsh) roots, but also a lot of PS in their background.

Steichen played and coached under Mike Sanford who helped build Urban Meyer’s Power Spread Offense at Bowling Green.

Sirianni has influences from his Bro at Wash&Jeff College where he runs an intricate PS Offense. He also has influence from PS Guru Chip Kelly, who started the whole PS Ideal here in Philly almost a decade ago!

On Defense Jonathon Gannon’s background is somewhat conservative, but has some influence from Zimmer, Fisher and the NFL darling of defense today – Brandon Staley.

Gannon’s a smart DC. He keeps it simple and balanced, but will throw in some really cool wrinkles in every game!

SpTeams Coach Michael Clay learned from top STearmer David Fipp, formerly of the Eagles. He has some cool Coverages and Return Schemes and done well this year.

Culture – It’s a young one – 2yrs old – but STRONG! A Brotherhood built on Aggressive Variety – All for One, One for All – Fight to the Death Mentality!

It works for sure – but last week did show signs of being TOO EMOTIONAL as opposed to Playing With Emotion – as Nick Saban always says.

The Championship Game was Big – but the Super Bowl will be bigger. The Eagles need to be Fired Up and Confident – and I believe they will be – but not over hyped up and over confident!

Momentum / Injuries

Any team this late in a very long season is banged up, but also on a good roll. These 2 teams are no exception.

Chiefs

The Chiefs Momentum + Injuries are what throws this game into almost complete unpredictability.

On one hand – they have a great underdog mentality right now. A fighting spirit behind their banged up QB. This could easily work to their advantage as it did 2 weeks ago.

They also are very banged up. Versus the Bengals they were dropping like flies! Yet, they somehow pulled that game out – mainly due to Mahomes / Kelce leadership!

In this game, Mahomes should be much better and all the players are available except Hardman. But will they maintain that health throughout the game??

If they drop like flies against the Eagles, not only will they not win, it won’t even be close.

Eagles

The Eagles are more banged up than people seem to recognize, but like the Chiefs they had 2 weeks to heal and everyone is playing – except for their PR – but they called up Ward from the Practice Squad so they should be fine.

More importantly, the talk is that Hurts’ Shoulder is better than it’s been for a while – bad news for the Chiefs D. Hurt’s hasn’t been as accurate on the deep throws of late. If he’s hitting his Shots in this game, this PS Offense will be tough to slow down!

As for Momentum – again everyone assuming “easy blowouts” equate to great momentum. But what if the Chiefs punch the Eagles in the nose!? How will they respond??

There were Mental Breakdowns vs 49ers all game – most egregious were the Match Coverage breakdowns. Guys wide open that the rusty 4th String QB didn’t see. Then the gap breakdowns in the Run Defense.

On Offense Hurts missed open guys and misfired deep throughout the game. Sanders missed open holes in the run game as well.

More concerning were the Emotional Swings. After Purdy’s Injury it was the Eagles O that letdown worse than the Niners O! In fact, the Niners tied it at 7-7 before the Eagles O woke up and focused!

Then all the penalties, fighting and craziness with the SpTeams guys…Fired Up is good – Out of Control Chaos may not cut it vs the Chiefs!

This is the Super Bowl. Expect the Eagles to be at least as Fired Up as they were 2 weeks ago – for better or for worse.

Prediction- Eagles (Chiefs w/ Points)

An absolute Toss Up which could go any which way but loose!

Culture – Inexperienced Confidence vs Experienced WIP

Many of the Eagles played in the last Super Bowl they were in, but the Staff is new. There is no doubt the Eagles are the most confident team in the game right now.

The Chiefs are still a “work in progress” with all the rookies and numerous injuries.

Both teams love one another and will fight to the end, but the Eagles – if they don’t get out of control – have a massive Aggressive Approach right now that they WILL NOT BE STOPPED and the whole fan base is behind that approach!

Spags holds the Key

His Aggressive Mix needs to slow down the Eagles PS Offense for the Chiefs to have a shot. The Rookie DBs will make mistakes – but they will also bring great Energy and make big plays!

Gannon’s Defense can be Over Agg vs both the Run and Pass and Reid will look to take advantage! They are also vulnerable to the Power Run Attack so don’t be surprised if KC’s own 3-headed monster in Pacheco/McKinnon/Helaire out rush Sanders/Gainwell/Scott.

I love the Eagles Brilliant Simplicity with the NFL’s most Pure PS Team yet, but Reid and Spags are Masters…again – hard to predict this one.

Eagles should be the Favorite

I still see the Eagles as a definite favorite, but I now believe the Chiefs not only can win, but even blow the Eagles out if they lose their composure! Still, the window for victory for the Eagles is much larger than it is for the Chiefs.

Why Chiefs?

1 – That Bengals Win over the Bills was heavily overrated and showed up in the Ch Game. This game feels eerily similar.

Everyone talking about the 49er win, but that game not only was another throw away game – the Eagles made a ton of Mental Mistakes and had Emotional Swings of over aggression and letdowns.

Play like that again and the Eagles will go down to the Chiefs.

2 – Super Bowl 56 – everyone was yelling for the sexy pick – the Bengals – but it was actually the Rams Year! We have the same thing happening again.

The big difference this year is that the Eagles have been the best team throughout the year – unlike the Bengals. The Eagles have a much more solid Team than the Bengals of 2021.

Why Eagles?

1 – Chiefs Injuries. They weren’t light little nicks. Concussion, Shoulder, Knees, Ankles — how healthy are the Chiefs? Is 2 weeks enough?

2 – HURTS LEGS! – To me this is BIG. PS Football is simple. KISS – Keep It Simple Stupid. If Spags confuses or pressures Hurts – RUN! And sometimes it’s that simple.

If Hurts is able to break contain in the Pass and keep a good Run Mix, this Eagles Offense will be tough.

The Niners contained him last week, but that’s maybe the top DLine and Hurts didn’t need to run.

Spags will have a plan – will he be able to make Hurts have to win from the Pocket. HUGE KEY TO THIS GAME!

3 – Chiefs Rookies. Especially DBs. They will play great, but will they hold up late in a close game? That’s a tough one.

Final Take – Chiefs in a SB Comeback for All Time??

I think this will be more low scoring UNLESS it turns into a shootout late. The reason is that I think there will be more running and ball control than usually seen in the NFL.

Both Ds are susceptible to Power and both Os are good at it!

Also, there will be Wind. How much is questionable, but maybe enough to hurt the deep shots, which hurts the Eagles more than the Chiefs. Mahomes can matriculate with the best of them. The Eagles PS Offense relies more on the deep shot to open up the Spread Pass and the Power Run.

Pick – Can I Pick Both??

I’m worried about the Chiefs health and in a close game – the Rookie DBs. It does seem like the Eagles year in 2022.

But nothing would surprise me. The inexperience could really hurt the Eagles. But Sirianni has proven to be a coach ahead of his years.

At the same time, the talk is that OC Steichen is leaving to HC the Colts…did that have any effect on this Offense and Team the last 2 weeks!?

I will go with someone having a big lead at some point. Close late. Who? Who knows? But it seems to me – as much as I hate to go against the Chiefs for a second week in a row, I will…you know what… SCREW IT!

IM PICKING 2 SCENARIOS — EAGLES IN A SB BLOWOUT (It’s simply their year – best team – first NFL PS Team – Chiefs Beat Up); CHIEFS IN A SB COMEBACK OF ALL TIME! (Veteran Team – Underdog Never Give Up – Eagles total Letdown 2nd Half)