POWERSPREAD

An underrated team all year that is surprisingly still a slight favorite versus the most talented team in the playoffs coming off their biggest win since their last NC! Does the “favorite” even have a chance in this game?

PS = Space x TimeTeam

CULTURE = Personnel / Operations / Strategy + MOMENTUM

Football = Talent / Execution / Scheme + MOMENT

*For a quick preview check out my CFP SF Rose Bowl Podcast

OFFENSE – Alabama Small Edge

The Talent and Momentum of Bama plus the McCarthy injury unknown give the Crimson Tide a small edge heading into this game.

Talent – Alabama Edge

Due to the solid edge at Oline and WR. Michigan a small edge everywhere else.

QB – Tie

Milroe has the talent edge as a classic Dual Threat PS QB, but McCarthy is a baller and is athletic as well. I want to give the edge to McCarthy for his experience, but the talk of him not being 100% concerns me and turns this matchup into a tie.

If McCarthy is seriously injured it is obvious Edge Bama, but I don’t think that’s the case.

RB – Mich Small Edge

McClellan may not play, but this is Bama! Roydell Williams and Jam Miller are big talents as well. In saying that, McClellan is the best of the bunch and would be a nice addition if he were to play. With him this is more of a Tie, but w/o him I give a small edge to Michigan.

Corum is a Mighty Mite! Tough as nails and underrated as a runner. He may not have top notch speed, but he’s skillful at reads and using his Oline. He’s also very shifty. On the big TD run vs OSU he set the Buckeyes S & LB up by pressing the heels of his Oline then bouncing outside!

Michigan also has depth w/ speedback Edwards + powerback Mullings. With or w/o McClellan I give Michigan a small edge.

WR – Bama Edge

I know that Burton is a big talent and has played decent all year. I know Bond has really come on late. I know the TEs are strong and the depth is strong. The edge is definitely towards Bama, but I wont give a big edge because of UM’s Experience once again.

Roman Wilson is a strong leader at WR. Loveland a big receiving talent at TE (though not a good blocker yet). Cornelius Johnson a strong possession receiver. Edwards great out of the backfield. Corum as well. True Freshman Semaj Morgan has a lot of wiggle to his game.

UM has a better than advertised group, but just doesn’t have the overall speed of the top WR groups. Bama’s group is scarier and can bust M2M coverage on a regular basis. Thus they get the edge.

OLINE – Bama Edge

If I had more trust in the young guys on the left side for Bama – LT Proctor LG Booker – I’d give a big edge Bama. Those two have really come on of late, but I’m wondering if UM’s talented DLine and their surprise stunts and pressures will cause problems on that left side. Their C McLaughlin is solid & RT Latham is their best imo. RG Roberts consistency has solidified this whole unit late in the season.

For Michigan it’s two big thoughts – the Ts getting burned off the edge all year & their leader RG Minter being on the sideline w/ season ending surgery. The good news is they have had a Month of Prep now to get used to the new lineup with RT Barnhardt moving to RG and young Trente Jones coming in at RT. C Nugent is also fully healthy for the first time in a while.

In the end – UM’s Ts will struggle w/ Bama’s edge rushers and blitz pressures. The question is how much will they struggle and can they win some of the battles so McCarthy can use his legs and find WRs downfield. Even w/ a young left side vs a great UM DLine, the edge still has to go to Bama!

Execution – Michigan Very Slight Edge

Early in the year this is Michigan all the way due to Experience and most of the Starters Returning from last year. Now it’s much more even. Saban’s Culture is Execution Based – as he says repeatedly – and after some early stumbles, Bama’s O is running on all cylinders right now.

Still, I give the slight edge – a very slight edge – due to all that experience and such an experienced QB. I don’t know if the RT being new (though he’s had a month of reps now) will make me regret giving the edge to Michigan.

Scheme – Michigan Small Edge

I feel that Bama OC Tommy Rees, who’s a Brian Kelly guy, is better than people have understood. He can get a little too conservative and add a little too much bland Pro Concepts to his PS Scheme, but his big mentor is Kelly and that means it’s Air Raid – Space Concepts plus PS Read Options and QB Runs! He’s got the Dual Threat QB and he is slowly going back to the Power Spread side. Keep going, Tommy!

As for Michigan, I give them the edge. Sherrone Moore’s actually has a pure Power Spread background from the time he played OLine at OU under Kevin Wilson and his time as a coach under Morris Watts (late shift to PS) and Spread guru Chris Ostrowsky. I breakdown some of his scheme on film vs Iowa to illuminate his PS concepts. Even a little bit of Briles extreme Power and Spread Ideals due to his connection w/ Josh Huepel & Jeff Lebby.

Moore has come up with some shockingly great Gameplans vs PSU & OSU. He also came out w/ some cool schemes in those matchups and timely play calls. PSU was heavy Power. Iowa was a lot of Spread. OSU was a mix w/ great Play Action, Breaking Tendency & Mis-Direction. Moore is on fire and will need to be for UM to have a shot to win this game!

Moment – Alabama Slight Edge

So forget all we have seen – all the stats – all the film. Where are we RIGHT NOW!

Bama’s Offense is on fire – no doubt. The team is fully confident in their QB as he is in his Team! The talented WRs have really come on and the Oline is living up to their immense talent. I believe they will be set to have a big game.

Michigan’s Offense has had it’s ups and downs this year due to injuries & a lack of an experienced “burner” at WR. Still, they are vastly experienced with a great culture. Their play is always solid and at times fantastic w/ Moore and McCarthy as their leaders both off and on the field.

I’m giving a slight edge to Bama due to the health of McCarthy. But only slight, as I believe McCarthy will show up and ball out as he always does in big games – except the Playoffs – but this is a New Day – a New Game. My gut says UM will also be strong on O and make this a great matchup of two styles of PS Pro Offenses.

DEFENSE – Michigan Edge

If Bama’s D plays their best game this year – and they could – then it’s Bama Edge. But I have seen UM’s D be strong all year and I feel confident that won’t change – even vs a talented Dual Threat QB.

Talent – Michigan Slight Edge

Bigger Recruiting hands down by Bama, but the Experience, Development and Talent of Michigan makes this slightly the best Defense in Football.

DL – Mich Small Edge

People know that UM has a top notch D and DLine, but I don’t think most understand just how good this DLine is. Here’s a look at the last play vs OSU that sealed the win. Whether it’s Blitz Pressure or Line Stunts and Slants, Mich will get pressure off the edge and up the middle.

Their Middle Trio of Jenkins, Graham and the monstrous Grant is backed up by the strong experienced play of Benny & Goode. 5 Deep inside. 4 Deep Edge Rushers. Harrell the leader – Stewart & Moore w/ more speed – McGregor a shutdown run defender. This could be the best DLine in America and needs to be for UM to win this game!

No knock on Bama as they also have a lot of Talent & Depth. 4 Top guys in the interior. Their 2 top edge rushers, Turner & Braswell are even better than UM. Bama has one of the best DLines in Football, but doesn’t have as much depth or the same mobility up the middle as Michigan.

LB – Mich Slight Edge

Again it’s close. Mich has one of the best duos in American in Colson & Barrett. Bama again has major talent in Lawson, Campbell & Marshall (transfer from GA). Again – the experience of Mich gives them an ever so slight edge, though I like Bama’s size and depth a little better.

DB – Bama Small Edge

This is where Bama makes up ground. CBs McKinstry & Arnold are one of the best Duos in the Country. Caleb Downs has really come on as a super recruit True Freshman. Malachi Moore is an experienced strong Nickel. Key is solid at S, but the weak point. Amos & Story have played well when called upon. Especially Amos in for McKinstry in the SEC Ch Game.

Michigan’s best guy Will Johnson is back. Mike Sainristil is the best Nickel in football! Safties Moore & Paige are strong w/ Paige having a lot of upside. They have very good depth with Quentin Johnson, top recruit Keon Sabb, McBurrows and Hill. They have one weak link – like Bama – with UMass Xfer Wallace, at the CB spot opposite WJohnson.

Very similar secondaries, but some of Bama’s starters are simply more talented. Overall, UM is close, but edge goes to Bama.

Execution – Michigan Slight Edge

Earlier in the year I’d have said Michigan hands down due to their experience coming into the year. Bama has caught up. Still, I have to give Mich a slight edge due to some of the inexperience in the Playoffs for Bama and injuries in the secondary that keep popping up, forcing young guys to play.

Scheme – Michigan Slight Edge

Jesse Minter has been fantastic. He’s not one of the best out there – yet – but he’s coming fast. A very similar scheme to Mike Macdonald’s of the Ravens, who was the DC here 2 yrs ago. Of course Harbaugh’s bro is long time HC of the Ravens.

While this DScheme mixes Pressure like the Raven’s Psycho Scheme started by Rex Ryan, it isn’t as aggressive as Ryan’s or of late, Wink Martindale’s blitz heavy schemes w/ the Ravens. Minter, like Macdonald and Pees before him, mixes more coverage than pressure. But his timing in Play Calling is what makes him great.

Bama w/ the great DMind of Saban (Pattern Match Innovator) and his long time bud, Kevin Steele, have a strong scheme as well. At least the same amount of pressure mix of Minter, but not the same in coverage. Due to the immense talent of their DBs plus the development, Saban/Steele runs a lot of M2M. Minter will too, but also mixes a ton of other stuff – Covers 1,3,6,7 – Tampa2,4,7 – Qtrs,2Match – and stuff I probably don’t know.

This is such a close call. Saban and Steele have been good for so long, but Minter’s tricky Coverage Mix is leading edge right now and I give him an ever so slight nod.

Moment – Tie

Both Defenses are playing their best right now. UM has the experience, but Bama keeps getting better.

Even with the usual injuries throughout the year. Bama was strong all year, but not consistent until the latter part of the year. Throw out the Auburn game. I said that in my SEC Ch Podcast Preview. That Game is always it’s own beast.

Bama’s D is strong right now, but will have to deal with a hot OC & experienced baller at QB. Will they play their best game of the year? If they do, then Bama wins.

Michigan has been strong AND consistent all year. Nothing will change. In this game they will have to struggle w/ a talented dual threat QB w/ a lot of talent at WR & on the Oline. They will give up some big plays, but I think they will create big plays of their own when it counts!

SPECIAL TEAMS – Alabama Slight Edge

Reichard is the reason, though it bothers me because of how good Morgan has been along with coverage units. I’m looking at this One Game – this One Moment – and I feel Reichard gives Bama a very very slight edge.

Talent – Bama Small Edge

Harbaugh has had some great Kickers/Punters of late and this year is no exception w/ Turner & Doman. Add in Semaj Morgan as a Returner (PR TD in B10 Ch) w/ strong depth on D for Coverage teams and this is a very talented SpTeams that can win a game.

Saban has always had the Focus & Talent for top notch SpTeams. K Reichard is the best. He could definitely pull out a close game w/ a long FG. Burnip is a good P, just behind Doman for UM. A ton of Coverage Depth and talented Returners as well.

I give a small edge to Bama because of Reichard.

Execution – Tie

Both of these Coaches place high value on SpTeams and it shows.

Scheme – Tie

Saban always looking for an edge and hires different coaches to find it. This year is first year ST Coor Coleman Hutzler. Harbaugh’s son Jay runs the SpTeams for his dad.

Moment – Tie

Jay was really caught up in the Cheating Scandal and I wondered if that would have any effect. The Ks continue to be great and Morgan returned a Punt for a TD in the B10 Ch so I guess the answer is no!

Bama continues to be strong in all areas so again we have a wash.

ONE GAME CULTURE – Michigan

This is where I feel UM has the Edge. I talk about it a lot in my Podcast. “Us Against the World” as they continue to be overlooked. They are a slight favorite, but a lot of fans are thinking Bama in a big win.

The overall Talent is definitely Bama and if their D takes another step, then they will shut down the Michigan Offense and win. Milroe and company will be tough, but Michigan’s D can do enough and make big plays when it counts.

Michigan’s O is better than people think and this could be more high scoring than people are expecting, but it’s the 2 Defenses which will decide the outcome. Big plays at the end and the strong Culture w/ a Big Chip on their Shoulder will help Michigan seal the deal late.

But if it comes down to the wire – watch out for Milroe Magic and a great Kick by Reichard for the win.

~PS