POWERSPREAD

Two of the most underrated teams all year square off in one of the most unlikely National Championship games ever. An Offense that is even better than people understand vs a Defense that everyone is finally realizing may have been the best in football this year. Two great Cultures. The two best teams in CFB!

The Match-Up

BEST OFFENSE vs BEST DEFENSE. A Football Classic, where Special Teams & the stronger Culture may be the deciding factors in the game. As I said in my NC Preview Podcast, I took Michigan to start the year and feel their Culture is unbeatable this year.

While the podcast was my overall take, I go through the details of Talent, Execution & Scheme below to backup my assertion that these are the two best teams in CFB and this is Michigan’s year!

*Comprehensive Drive-by-Drive Review of the Rose Bowl & Sugar Bowl

OFFENSE – Washington Edge

This DeBoer Offense to me is a work-in-progress. At it’s best w/ talented players it’s the best out there – College or Pro! But it can be thrown off schedule with a good DScheme. Michigan has that and the talent.

Still, Washington is the obvious Edge here. Michigan has to have a great Gameplan and Execute this week or this will be a joke. I think they will and at least hang in this game and give their Defense a chance to win it!

TALENT – Washington Edge

Again, a lot of this is due to the Offensive System, but give credit where credit is due. The QB/WRs have played great most of the year. RB Johnson is banged up, but is a fighter. The OLine is overrated but still very solid.

The good news for UM is Corum is healthy again and JJ & this Offense have a ton of Experience and Depth. Even expect to see backup QB Orji in on some plays and able to run this O if anything happens to JJ.

QB – Wash Slight Edge

This to me is more of an Unpredictable Unknown than I think most realize.

Penix has become a top tier QB that looks to have a lot of “Tua” in his game. Real potential for the NFL. JJ McCarthy is also one of the top QBs in the country, but not necessarily an “NFL” QB. So this is edge Washington, right? Not so fast…

A lot of what we have seen from Penix has a lot to do with the brilliance of DeBoers Offensive System. It’s based on Primary Timing Routes combined with Space Option Concepts Pre & Post Snap. When Penix finds his rhythm and is decisive he’s near unstoppable. IF the Defense schemes up a lot of Aggressive Pressure/Coverage Variety, then ill-timed mistakes start to creep into his game.

McCarthy has a really good OC backing him in Sherrone Moore. JJ isn’t the best at Read Progressions, but he’s a baller – a leader who can use his legs in both designed runs and scrambles. He’s also a really underrated ball handler, which is big with all the PlayAction/Misdirection that Moore uses.

Penix has a lot more potential in DeBoer’s Offense, but I trust JJ more in this situation. He had a pretty poor game, execution wise, versus Bama. UM isn’t great w/ a month off. I expect a better JJ in this game and w/ Minter’s Schemes on D, Penix could have his issues.

Because of the immense potential of Penix in this Offense, I still give him a slight edge. Most would give him a big edge, I would think. But this is a CFB NC Game, not the Super Bowl. JJ is an excellent leader and has the experience in these Playoffs.

RB – Mich Edge

I love Dillon Johnson. To me he’s a Pro RB. I also love Blake Corum. His wiggle + toughness is second to none. He knows how to run. His backup, Edwards, has a ton of speed to burn. He’s been off this year, but don’t let that fool you. IF he’s a big part of the gameplan, he will have a big game.

Johnson is banged up and though Nixon is a solid backup, it’s not like UM’s depth with Edwards & power back Mullings. And Corum looks healthy again.

I go with UM because of their Depth. This will be a constant theme for UM when analyzing their Talent and was a big reason they won the Rose Bowl!

WR – Wash Edge

Speaking of Depth – Tyler Morris came out of nowhere at WR for UM in the Rose Bowl. I thought the TEs came through – especially with their blocking. Roman Wilson had 2 big catches at the end of regulation. True Frosh Morgan is always a threat and they played another True Freshman as well. Add in good receiving backs and there is a lot of Depth on this Team.

Here’s the thing though…Washington has the same kind of depth and is simply better 1-5. Odunze, Polk, McMillan are the best Trio in CFB. Bernard, Jackson and the backs are great as well. Then the TE Trio of Westover/Culp/Cuevas.

I won’t give Washington a HUGE edge, because of what I saw from UM in the Rose Bowl, but they get a definite edge still. They have done it all year long at a very high level. Yes, this has a lot to do with a brilliant OScheme – but these guys are good. Very good.

OLINE – Wash Edge

I think everyone knows by now how I feel about Washington’s OLine. Two Pro Tackles. Two Average to Solid Guards. One very smart solid talented Center. Ok Depth.

They benefitted to a great degree on the OScheme. Max Pass Pro of 6/7/8 man Protections. When it was 5 Man Protect, it was usually a lot of Quick Game (Space) or Primary Read (Timing) Schemes. This WAS NOT the best OLine in CFB this year.

For Michigan the big news was the loss of their RG and leader Zak Zinter. Just more controversy that galvanized this “Culture of Win”. The Ts are shaky in Pass Pro. The Gs Solid. C Nugent is still a bit up and down since his injury, but can be strong.

Washington’s OLine, while not great, is still strong and has had a lot of consistency this year. As long as they don’t have injuries in this game they are the better OLine, but it’s not to the degree many will believe.

EXECUTION – Michigan Edge

I know this looks backwards. Washington comes off a very highly executed SF game, while Michigan’s execution on Offense was bad thru most of the game.

From what I’ve seen from this team, who’s now been to 3 straight CFPs, their Offense does not operate well after a Month off. They are a rhythm/feel style of O, that needs reps in live game action. It’s a big gamble, but I’m betting that UM will execute a lot better in this game. They better.

If Washington executes their O as well as last game and Mich plays as bad on O as last game, then Washington is going to win – and it may not be close!

The problem for UW is UM’s Defense. Jesse Minter was brilliant w/ his Gameplan/Schemes/PlayCalls last week. I’ve seen it during the course of the year. IF UW faces a good DScheme w/ a lot of Aggressive Variety in Pressures & Coverages, it screws w/ their timing. Penix can get on a bad roll as much as he can get on a good one.

If this happens and the Wash O starts to press – it could get worse. And then we may see there wasn’t as much talent as we thought on the UW side. A lot of it has been System related.

I’ll take the risk and take UM after getting their rhythm back at the end of last game. They have the Experience and seem to be the Team of 2023. This has to be their edge on O, cause it certainly won’t be the Scheme.

SCHEME – Washington Edge

Usually this is a Big or Huge Edge for Washington. I’ve said and written a lot about DeBoer’s Offense. Next will be time spent in the film room so I can actually show everyone what I’m talking about.

The only reason this isn’t a big edge is because Sherrone Moore’s System is also very strong. As is his Gameplans/Schemes/PlayCalling. UM got a bit conservative in the 2nd Half last week, but then ramped it up just in time.

DeBoer has developed the Offense of the Future, but it’s still a work in progress. It can go awry vs a strong DScheme. Still, the edge has to go to Washington.

MOMENTUM- Tie

Again, I’m going out on a limb here. Washington exploded on Texas and should’ve won by much more. Michigan struggled a lot in the Bama Game, but came on late. That is exactly why I’m calling this a tie.

UM should continue to execute better in this game with the SF under their built and now back to their regular schedule of weekly games.

UW has got to have it in the back of their minds that their Offense does not put teams away. Constantly turning Blowouts into close games. And now facing a tough, tricky Defense! Maybe the best!

Momentum is tricky, but it’s about this MOMENT. Not last week. It’s a risky call for me to not give this to Washington, but it’s how I feel going into THIS Game.

DEFENSE – Michigan Big Edge

Michigan has the solid Edge on all accounts! I would give this a HUGE Edge, except UW has played better since getting healthy. The schemes have been better as well. Still, this is UM all the way!

Talent – Michigan Big Edge

UW is an underrated D and healthy again. They are playing well, but UM is playing GREAT! They don’t have a big edge in any one position group, but the edge in all. So big edge goes to them.

DL – Mich Edge

9 DEEP! 4 GREAT DTs! 4 STRONG EDGE RUSHERS! SIZE, STRENGTH SPEED & DEPTH. This DLine is the #1 reason Michigan beat Bama! (see vid) That and Minter’s PlayCalling.

For Washington, Tuli Letuligasenoa looks healthy again at DT. Strong edge rushers in ZTF & Trice. Tuitele & Ale are two more big ones in the middle, backed by Tunuufi, Parker, Bandes. Lane & Asoau-Afoa back the edges. Not the talent of UM’s DLine, but this is a strong unit. I’d venture to say stronger than the Oline due to all the Depth!

I give UM the edge because their DLine has been fantastic led by Grant, Graham & Jenkins in the middle. Harrell, Stewart, DMoore & McGregor out wide. They have the momentum as well. Great Game last week. Great Season. Just not as big an edge as most would think.

LB – Mich Edge

This is the one spot UM doesn’t have a ton of depth. But it’s not bad. Hausmann & Rolder are solid at best.

Washington plays 5 guys at 2 spots. Ulofoshio, Tuputala, Bruenner, Goforth & Fowler. A lot of speed. Not much size.

Regardless of Depth, in this particular case, the edge goes to UM, because of their 2 Starters – Barrett & Colson. These 2 have it all but great size. Speedy, strong and experienced. They know the scheme and lead this defense.

DB – Mich Edge

Again – the Depth is strong for both teams here. Hampton and Fabiculanan lead a deep group of Safeties that has had it’s leader back in Asa Turner! CBs Muhammad, EJackson, Green & Dixon plus NB Terrell are an underrated bunch.

UM’s DBs are even more talented. S Rod Moore is the leader. CB Will Johnson the best cover guy. NB Mike Sainristil is the best Nickel in the country. Paige w/ backups Sabb & QJohnson are very strong at Safety. The other Corner Wallace, a transfer from UMass has played strong.

Overall, UW has better depth at CB, but the Starters and Safety Quartet for UM is borderline great. Again, Washington’s D is underrated, but simply can’t compete with the Talent on the Michigan side.

Execution – Michigan Edge

Michigan’s Execution versus Bama was near flawless. This unit has really gelled as the season went along and has a ton of experience. Expect more of the same.

Washingon has a very veteran group as well, but suffered through some injuries during the year and isn’t as talented from top to bottom.

UW is healthy now and executes strong when it matters most, but w/ Minter as the DC, UM is firing on all cylinders and gets the edge here as well.

Scheme – Michigan Edge

William Inge & Chuck Morrell have impressed me w/ their Scheme of late. It’s obvious that the injuries throughout the year were effecting some of the gameplanning and what they wanted to do defensively.

In saying that, they are no match for Jesse Minter right now. And this has nothing to do with cheating. A lot of his calls and the overall Gameplan last week wasn’t a matter of absolutely knowing the other play call. It was a solid mix of pressure & Coverage that confused Milroe & Bama. The options were there, but not taken by Bama.

Again, UW has better DCs than I gave them credit for to start the year, but Minter has also been better than I expected. Definite edge Michigan.

Momentum – Michigan Edge

Again – UM. They absolutely won the game for MIchigan vs Bama with the Offense and Special Teams making one mistake after another.

UW played well on D, but got conservative late, as they tend to do with the lead. Texas almost pulled out a game they shouldn’t even have been in at the end. That’s not the best Momentum coming into this one.

SPECIAL TEAMS – Michigan Edge

Harbaugh and his whole family are big Special Teams guys. UM just graduated a great K/P Tandem, but have another good one this year, though you wouldn’t know it by last week’s debacle.

DeBoer continues to field solid, but not very strong SpTeams units. This year the Coverage & Returns were good, but the Kicking was a mess in the middle of the year. Gross has kicked well at Playoff Time so we will see.

Gotta give the edge to Michigan. Overall I feel Turner is still the more trustworthy K and I expect a big rebound from last week. I think UW will rebound as well, but simply aren’t as strong in this category.

Talent – Michigan Edge

Turner and Doman had good years as UM’s K/P unit, so it was surprising to see the bad play in the SF Game. As with the Offense, I expect a big rebound this week. Morgan is a dangerous returner when he’s not fumlbing and the coverage units remain strong with all the Defensive Depth and Culture on this Team.

UW hasn’t had a good year at Kicker, with Gross struggling in the middle of the year. He’s rebounded late and played well vs Texas, but the edge SHOULD go to Turner of Mich. Bernard is a good returner like Morgan and I don’t expect another fumble from him. The Coverage units are solid – also due to their Depth – but not quite as strong as UM.

Execution – Michigan Small Edge

Both Teams struggled in their games last week. Each had a Punt Fumble and some issues on Coverage plus lackluster Punting. Michigan struggled even more with two bad snaps on a XPt and FG resulting in 2 misses.

Overall, Harbaugh makes a big deal about Special Teams, so expect a rebound. DeBoer’s SpTeams are solid now that Gross is kicking well, but will that carry into this game?

UM has had the stronger season and I have to give them and edge, but only a small one after last week’s performance and Gross kicking better now for UW.

Scheme – Michigan Small Edge

Harbaugh’s brother runs the SpTeams and I’ve seen creative schemes from him in the past. Also a willingness to try different personnel when needed during a game.

Don’t always see that from DeBoer’s squad. Again a small edge to UM.

Momentum – Tie

Neither Team good Momentum after last week. Again, expect a rebound from Michigan now that they are back on a regular weekly schedule. K Gross needs to keep kicking thru the uprights when called upon.

2023 CULTURE – MICHIGAN

Jim Harbaugh has has success at both the College and NFL level for 4 different teams now. No matter how you feel about the guy, he’s obviously a HC who gets Culture, though it took him a while at Michigan to synch it all together. Now he faces a huge scandal in the off-season, but this has only seemed to galvanize the locker room.

Kalen DeBoer also has had big success at the small and big College level. He’s been doing it a lot longer than people realize. His has created fast success at both Fresno State and here with his High Octane Offensive System.

The one thing to remember coming into this one is the Big Game Experience factor. Harbaugh has it in spades over DeBoer. He has been in a Super Bowl and this is his third straight CFP appearance. He just beat one of the best ever in Saban.

I had Michigan at the beginning of the year and I don’t think that’s going to change now. IF that Offense executes better and Minter comes up with some tricky Sim Pressure + Coverage Mix to knock Penix off rhythm, this could be a long day for UW.

The Analysis above should show a Big Edge for UW on Offense and that still could be the case. If so, then it’s a close game that UM needs to win w/ its D, SpTeams and Culture.

IF UM’s Offense really comes together and joins it’s Defense in a high execution level, then a lot of pressure begins to mount on UW to score points against a great D and the game could get away from them.

Either way – close or a roll – I’m staying with UM to win. DeBoer has the Offense of the Future, but we are not there yet. A great year for Washington under a great Coach, but 2023 belongs to the Wolverines.

~PS