A very up & down 2023 NFL Season, to say the least, followed suit with continued inconsistent play in the 2024 Playoffs, but here we are – the 2 best teams so far this decade.
The Chiefs have a decided edge over the Niners in this decade with 4 SB & 5 Championship appearances in 5 yrs! In that same time the 49ers have been to 4 Championship Games but are 2-2, playing in only their 2nd SB. Their only other SB Appearance was vs these same Chiefs 4 years ago.
SanFrancisco controlled most of that game, before Andy Reid went to the Hurry-Up-No-Huddle Offense – or HUNH – rarely used in the NFL. Mahomes & the Chiefs immediately started moving the ball and were avle to win late. Will we have a repeat? Will the 49ers win this time and challenge the Chiefs dominance? Will we actually have a high quality game?
Playoff Recap
Arguably the only great game of the Playoffs has been Detroit vs LA during the first weekend. In the midst of a terrible “Super” WC Weekend, the performance by Stafford & the Rams was lights out. Detroit matched this challenge with high quality Offense in the 1st Half and some really good Defense in the 2nd Half.
Close games ensued the following 2 weekends, but calling any of those games high quality would be highly debatable. SanFran played two very average games and are lucky to even be in the SB. The Chiefs played two seriously banged up teams in the Dolphins & Bills and then played a Ravens team that once again failed to show up at playoff time.
One thing is a known fact – both of these SB Teams have Talent, Experience & great Coaching. This game, of all the matchups in these Playoffs, has the best chance to end this shoddy NFL Season with a bang!
*Super Bowl LVIII Podcast Preview
The Match-Up
A comparison of the two teams in terms of Talent, Execution & Scheme. The 3 factors that make up the on-the-field Culture Clash in any game!
Talent – Tie
With Talent we look at the 3 Phases Coaches talk about so much – Offense, Defense & Special Teams. If you go through the list below I would give the overall Edge to the Niners due to their advantage at the Skill Positions on Offense and their DLine. But it’s close – especially with an experienced talent like Mahomes at QB.
When you throw in the Special Teams (last but not least), the Talent equation flips. Mainly due to the difference in the Kickers. An experienced vet in Butker vs a talented rookie who has struggled. In a close game this could be the difference.
Most would probably not be thinking about SpTeams and give the Niners the overall Talent Edge. I’d agree, but with an experienced K + the Mahomes effect, it has to be a Tie. At most a Slight Edge to the Niners.
Offense – Tie
QB – We know the Chiefs have the QB edge. Purdy is underrated and actually more like Mahomes than a lot of fans understand. He has a high degree of mobility, smarts & arm talent. Plus he works well in the Shanahan Scheme. Problem is – Mahomes has the same positive qualities, but has more Talent & Experience. He also has a great deal more experience in big games, though I believe that these last 2 playoff comeback wins have helped Purdy in that regard.
RB/WR/TE – What also helps Purdy is that his Skill Guys are so strong and definitely win the battle over the Chiefs. Yes, the Chiefs have a nice collection of Power RBs + the great Kelce at TE, but they do not have the same talent/experience at WR – even with the emergence of rookie Rashee Rice. It was a problem all year. Andy adjusted his Scheme accordingly and the Chiefs pass game has been more efficient in the playoffs vs some banged up defenses.
OL – The crucial part of any Offense that most fans ignore is the OLine. The 49ers are very strong on their left side with Williams & Banks. Not so much on their right. The Chiefs are strong across the board after their new RT Taylor worked out some kinks early in the year. I would give the Chiefs the edge, except for the fact that their strong veteran LG Thuney went down during the Playoffs and his backup Allegretti is definitely a downgrade.
I want to give the Chiefs a Slight Edge because of Mahomes, but with Thuney still out for this game, I just can’t do it. The 49ers Skill Guys are so strong. McCaffery & Juszczyk are the best RB tandem in the game. Both WRs Samuel & Ayuk can be used in both the run and the pass, while Kittle may now be the top TE in the game. Mahomes is the best, but overall I call this a Tie.
Defense – 49ers Small Edge
DL – Everyone knows the edge rushers for the Niners – Bosa & Young – but their DL is loaded on the inside and has a lot of Depth as well. The Chiefs also have a strong DLine led by Chris Jones, but their best edge rusher in the playoffs – Omenihu (a former 49er) – is out after suffering an injury in the last game. With Karlaftis, Danna and speedy players in the back 7 that Spags uses in all kinds of creative blitz packages, the Chiefs will be fine, but the edge here has to go to the Niners.
LB – These 2 teams have some strong veteran LBs, but again I’d have to give the Niners an edge with maybe the best tandem in the League – Warner & Greenlaw. Still, the Chiefs have a ton of depth and are led by Nick Bolton who’s very similar to the Niners pair. Gay is very talented as well & Tranquill has been playing on fire! Slight edge Niners.
DB – This is tricky. The young DBs of the Chiefs still make some mistakes, but are very talented and led by a top notch Vet in Sneed. Both teams have been playing w/o a starting S – Hufanga for the Niners- Cook for the Chiefs. Even though Hufanga’s replacement – Ji’Ayir Brown – has played well along with recently acquired veteran Logan Ryan, the Chiefs Vet S Edwards is more secure on the backend. The Chiefs DBs have played well and the Niners sans Hufanga just don’t match up in this one.
Overall, because of their Front 7, I have to give the Niners the edge here – in Talent – but it’s not by a lot.
Special Teams – Chiefs
K/P – Both Punters are strong. The Kickers are a different story. Sanfran’s rookie K Moody is very talented, but has been inconsistent all year. The Chiefs long time K Butker is both talented & experienced in big game pressure. You never know, but the edge here has to be with the Chiefs.
Returns/Coverage – Both Teams have speedy, experienced Returners. McCloud’s been a great pickup for the Niners, while the Chiefs brought back Hardman to shore up this area. Both Teams also have a lot of depth for strong Coverage Teams.
Due to the Kicking discrepancy, the edge has to go to the Chiefs.
Execution – 49ers Slight Edge
This is a tricky factor to compare, but is huge. Execution on the field fluctuates weekly for any team depending on injuries + momentum. Experienced players who have played together for a time under the same coaching staff can help tremendously. In today’s Modern Game it is hard to keep players & coaches long term.
In the case of these two teams the HCs have been the same for years – more than a decade for the Chiefs. The Chiefs also have a long time DC in Spagnuolo and another long time Reid/Chief guy in Nagy as their new OC this year.
The Niners DC Wilks is new to the Niners this year and his schemes are the weak link. Still, the Niners Defense has more veteran leadership than the Chiefs and while Wilks Schemes aren’t strong, they are geared towards player execution. The Chiefs Schemes are much stronger, but they can breakdown in the back seven and with a younger secondary.
On Offense I know that Mahomes is so much more experienced than Purdy, but he’s still working with a young group of WRs. I feel that Purdy has grown a lot this year and at this point the offense w/ better execution on a regular basis is a tough call. Certainly the Chiefs have been better in the playoffs.
For sure I give a slight edge to the Niners Execution on D due to their veteran leadership and talent!
Scheme – Chiefs
Because of Spagnuolo vs Wilks and the mastermind of Special Teams Coach, Dave Toub, the Chiefs hold this advantage. But… Shanahan has 2 weeks to plan, which is scary for the Chiefs. Also, their own SpTeams Coach – Brian Schneider – is a Pete Carroll guy and has done a good job to shore up what were once some shoddy SpTeams for the Niners.
Offense – Tie
Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan are Offensive Masterminds. They both have a West Coast Offense Background, but they aren’t as similar in their Strategy as most would think.
Andy has a BYU background, which contributed much to the Air Raid Pass Spread that took over College Football in the new millennium. Andy has added a lot of the Power Spread from the college level and changed the way NFL Offense is schemed.
Shanahan runs much more of a Power WCO like his Dad ran at Denver. Kyle takes it to another level w/ amazing Motions/Shifts and Play Design. His use of Personnel Packages was ahead of the game a few years ago and hearkened back to the great Clark Shaughnessy who developed the Modern T in the 1940s with unparalleled brilliance in strategic use of ALL his players. I call his Offense a WCPST, combining WCO w/ PS and the “old” Modern T.
I have written a ton on both Reid and Shanahan’s Offenses. For this game we know that Andy will continue with the Quick Game he’s implemented to make up for the lack of experience at WR. Mixing in the Power and PS run game with talented RBs & WRs running behind his strong OLine.
Shanahan needs to continue to go more to simple Power Spread Schemes that give Purdy simple reads to the outside. Purdy likes throws over the middle, but the Chiefs will be clogging that path. If Shanahan goes with more Power Spread Runs using McCaffrey & his WRs + Quick Game Screens for Purdy, then the Niners have a chance to beat the Chiefs tricky high pressure Defense.
Defense – Chiefs
Speaking of Defense, this isn’t really that close. Steve Spagnuolo’s Aggressive Variety in both Coverage & Pressure is hands down better than what SanFrancisco’s DC Steve Wilks brings to the table.
The good news for the Niners is they have Talent & Experience, and Wilks tries not to get in the way of his players. It’s just that many times he isn’t aggressive enough to deal with top modern Offenses. He will mix coverage, but not much pressure. Some of his coverages in the playoffs have been very good. He likes to surprise blitz, but with his talented DLine hasn’t blitzed as much this year.
Spags will blitz from everywhere with everyone – including all the DBs. He will also mix a lot of coverage looks – often switching to another coverage after the snap. For the most part, his talented players execute to a high level, but sometimes can make big mistakes with all this variety. Spags does a great job making his D look complicated to the Offense, but not to his players.
The edge here obviously goes to the Chiefs and is the biggest factor, besides Kicker, in this game that goes in the Chiefs favor. I won’t give a huge edge, because Wilks is a good coach who’s been around and usually his schemes are highly executable. For sure, though, this is the most worrisome factor in this game for the 49ers, in my opinion.
The Cultures
Both Reid and Shanahan have built the two best teams in Football in this decade. Strong Offenses & Defenses with both young & veteran talent all over the roster. The Special Teams for the Chiefs has been good for a long time. The 49ers are right there with them now – IF – the rookie K can hold his own in the biggest game of his life.
The Leadership of Andy is well known. He never takes credit for the team’s successes and always holds himself accountable for its failures. Even after the SB 54 win over the Niners – when he made a gutsy move to go to the HUNH Offense late in the game – he gave Mahomes all the credit. After last year’s SB he credited all his coaches over himself. He even remembered to thank Dave Toub – his long time SpTeams coach.
Shanahan also has done a great job with his own style of Leadership. He brought back the idea of SanFranciso as a Championship Team from the Bill Walsh Days. Like his dad, he uses a version of the Power WCO – Short Horizontal Spread Pass Game combined with Power Zone Runs – developed by Walsh and eventually becoming the ultimate Offense in both the Pro and College(Air Raid) game. The Niners and all their fans are primed to finally win another SB after a long drought!
Momentum / Injuries
The Momentum at this point is obviously for the Chiefs…or is it??
The Chiefs have been playing their best complimentary football (O/D/SpTeams) of the season. The Niners have not looked good early on in both of their Playoff Games against inexperienced Teams. This Chiefs Team is far from inexperienced and will not fade away in the 2nd Half.
Here’s the thing — who have the Chiefs played?? The Dolphins were a beat up mess at the end of the year, playing in a -20 degrees wind chill on the road! The Bills Defense was decimated by Injuries and had to fight like crazy just to make the playoffs after a series of close losses early in the year. The Ravens did their customary Playoff Fade w/ what seemed like panicky play-calling on Offense after going down early in the Championship Game.
Now the Chiefs have 2 Weeks off – slowing that momentum of 3 straight wins. The Niners really didn’t have any momentum to slow. They had the WC Weekend off and now have another 2 wk bye. So they should be good to go.
As for Injuries – the Niners are relatively healthy save their missing S Hufanga. The Chiefs lost LG Thuney and now will be without their best Edge Rusher Omenihu – while also continuing to miss their own S Cook. One of their RB Trio, Jerick McKinnon, will be back. But the edge after this 2 wk layoff may now lie with the Niners.
Gameday Culture – The Keys
The key to looking at the big picture has to lead to Gameday Culture. Yesterday doesn’t really matter in this one Game. So who really has the edge for this one game. The biggest game of the year.
Mahomes vs Purdy
Purdy has a shot here, but he’s still learning the nuances of a Pro Style Offense. Remember, he played in a PS Offense in College. If Shanahan gameplans for his skills as an improv QB, just like Reid does for Mahomes, then the Niners O could have their best game in these Playoffs.
In other words – more Power Spread. Spread the field – hit quick passes outside – mix power runs + spread runs from the WRs – keep the Spags Aggressive D off balance. AND USE PURDY’S LEGS! He needs to run at the right times.
Purdy has been pressing too much in big games. It’s something Mahomes had to learn. Reid has shifted from his normal PRO PS offense to more of a PS Pro with Quick Game passes and the Power Run Game. It has come together in the playoffs w/ Mahomes leading the way.
Purdy will need to stay within the System of Shanahan. I do think Shanahan will Spread it more w/ more Power. More Power Spread. If Purdy just sticks to the Gameplan, the 49ers can have success.
Spags vs Wilks
This is a problem for the 49ers, but it is solvable – FIRST & FOREMOST – if the Niners move the ball on Offense. I believe the players will be more fired up than they were vs the Packers & Lions and have big games. Still, the Reid Offense will have its success.
Wilks plays too many stagnant zone defenses and Reid will have great schemes and play calls to tear these coverages apart. Also if the ground game for the Chiefs is effective, the play-action is killer. Wilks needs a little more Mix — a little more RISK for REWARD! Just a little can go a long way.
I expect the Spags Defense to be as tough as ever. Even without Omenihu. The key for the Niners is a more PS Gameplan by Shanahan and some great play designs to pull out for Purdy during crucial times in the game. Especially play designs for “hot reads” vs the tricky Spags Blitz Packages!
Remember – as good as Spags is, his defense has gone up against Offenses that were “Works In Progress” in Miami, Buffalo & Baltimore. This is McDaniel’s 2nd yr with the Dolphins, while Buffalo and Baltimore had new OCs. Shanahan’s Offense – even with a 2nd yr QB – is long established. This will be the Chiefs toughest test on Defense.
Redzone
The Chiefs settled all year for a lot of FGs and have continued to do the same in the Playoffs. They are not the explosive Offense of years past.
This is not the case with the 49ers. They can make big mistakes on Offense, but can also be very explosive. The 49ers need to score – and score Touchdowns – while continuing to fight as a Defensive Unit in the Redzone.
If the Chiefs get TDs and not FGs, then this will be a tough day for the Niners and may come down to the Kickers. As I described above, that does not work out to the Niners advantage.
Intangibles
The Chiefs have the Experience, the great HC & DC and are on a roll once again. Their Confidence will be sky high and honestly, they should be the favorite here. Especially with a talented veteran Kicker and QB on their side.
The 49ers will want this game – badly. I do not think they play the same type of game they did against the Packers & Lions. It is possible that those games gave them confidence. They can play badly and still win.
That won’t be the case here, but they won’t lose faith either. And that is big. Trusting their Team – aligned as one – sometimes is all it takes. With a little talent and coaching to boot.
PICK – SanFrancisco 49ers
Here we go – all over again!
Are we looking at another crazy year for our world? What happened last time these two played in a Super Bowl…
Well, we all know what happened in March of 2020. What happened in the game was a hotter 49er team controlling and winning most of the game, until Reid made an aggressive move – his first ever in a big game – and it paid off.
This game has turned that scenario upside down. The hot team is KC right now. Unlike 2020, the Niners struggled to get here. Could it be the Niners who make an unlikely comeback late in this game to get revenge?
Smart Pick?
I could see anything happening in this game – based on all I described above. Either team could win in a blowout or a close game and I wouldn’t be surprised. It could be a sloppy game or a high quality game with players clicking and good gameplans by all the coaches.
I had the 49ers at the start of the Playoffs. I had them right after the Championship Games. I switched to KC this past week, but now I feel I have to switch back to the Niners.
The Chiefs are the smart pick, because more has to go right for the Niners to win. DC, K, and QB are definite disadvantages for the Niners. Plus their play in these playoffs leaves much to be desired. But…
A Final Scenario
With 2 Weeks, Shanahan may come up with a great PS Gameplan for Purdy. IF the 49ers are in control at the end, they won’t have to rely on their rookie K. They should also be much more fired up and ready to go in this game, which will minimize some of the weak schemes by Wilks. They have the experience & the talent. If they have the fire and focus, they can win this game.
Scenario – Niners start off well, but the Chiefs comeback strong. Control the 2nd & 3rd Quarters. The 49ers running out of time put together two good drives. One to get close and one to win it. Either a short kick by the rookie, Moody, or a TD pass by Brock.
Shanahan and the Niners finally have their SB and the talk starts about who’s the Team of this Decade going forward.
Or the Chiefs blow them out… 🙂
~PS
POWERSPREAD 